**Note** from Bead: Wildfire World Model · [canonical source](https://redfish.acequia.io/guerin/.agents/a617e16d-2257-40b7-8d30-9cfc5ff452e8/2026-06-20/notes/00-wildfire-world-model-orientation.md) · session 2026-06-20 · discussion: Talk: Wildfire World Model
**Bead:** `a617e16d` (wildfire-world-model) · 2026-06-20 · read this first.
## What this bead is The seam between two bodies of work: 1. The **world-models theory** (sibling bead [`2aeb9f0b`](https://redfish.acequia.io/guerin/.agents/2aeb9f0b-77a8-4463-ab45-0f5d0096e304/about.md)): LeCun's JEPA, Ha & Schmidhuber, DeepMind Dreamer/MuZero/Genie, Sutton — learn a predictive latent model, predict in representation space, improve from experience. 2. The **wildfire app/data ecology** built over the last ~10 days: ~16 beads spanning imagery acquisition, pose/calibration, STAC cataloging, fire-progression, and the taos-engine render substrate. This bead claims they are the same project: the world model is the compute layer that turns the ecology's fused imagery into measured fire behavior and forward forecasts.
## Read order 1. this note (frame + ecology map) 2. [`01-world-models-technical-approach.md`](https://redfish.acequia.io/guerin/.agents/a617e16d-2257-40b7-8d30-9cfc5ff452e8/2026-06-20/notes/01-world-models-technical-approach.md) — the V/M/C decomposition, why-not-generative, assimilation loop, fire-science anchors, plane mapping. 3. [`02-initial-plans-fuse-measure-forecast.md`](https://redfish.acequia.io/guerin/.agents/a617e16d-2257-40b7-8d30-9cfc5ff452e8/2026-06-20/notes/02-initial-plans-fuse-measure-forecast.md) — three staged plans + build order.
## The one-line model **V** (fuse imagery → latent fire state on the terrain) → **M** (roll forward: physics prior + learned residual, ensemble) → **C** (read out TOA / intensity / evac timing as STAC), closed by **EnKF assimilation** of each new observation. Observe → assimilate → predict → render → observe.
## Ecology map (the mounted beads, by capability) **FUSE (block V):** `97559992` cataloging-incident (MISB-0601 KLV) · `c66cbd1d` taos-engine (FMV→DEM projection) · `2986ff41` adsb-for-heli-videos · `58c0a5e0` media-forager · `65783732` firewatch-camera-grid (AlertWildfire PTZ, design-only) · `b3461c66` wildfire-imagery-acquisition (AlertWest grabber) · `edb06426`+`74c30681`+`58091f55`+`09fd1bf6` pose/calibration (citizen imagery) · `90f902e0` catalog · `31f69717` stac-camera-telemetry (3-clock model). **MEASURE (block V→state):** `182bd1a7` fire-progression (TOA raster, `progression-maker.mjs`, level-set) · `cbf8b027` Sandy/Palisades STAC (heat-perimeter KMLs) · `b6fcda63` fire-in-taos (DEM/slope plumbing). **FORECAST (block M):** `b6fcda63` fire-in-taos (forward CA → physics prior) · `182bd1a7` fire-progression (observed TOA = ground truth) · `f4ef67b7` agentscript-webgpu (GPU step loop) · `ab987654` wildfire-as-Phase-4-computation (Finney framing). **LENS:** `b2d9f6e1` senior-architect — 5-plane convergence (data/STAC · UI-shell · time-cursor · engine-kit · namespace-bus). Every plan stage is tagged with its plane. **SUBSTRATE:** `4456cd24` decentralized-cache (namespace-as-bus, first-3-hours P2P) · `eb8d150d` darpa-dice (decentralized AI) · `ade9cea6` time-line-web-component (master cursor).
## What this bead is NOT Not code — the implementations live in the mounted app/engine beads, and this bead offers plans to them (offer-only, never edits them). Not a benchmark — fire-behavior terms grounded via one Wikipedia fetch; ML-fire-forecasting SOTA citations are confirm-pending (WebSearch was degraded 2026-06-20). Not settled — sketch-level; decisions gated on Stephen.
## The gated decision Drive **A (fuse)**, **B (measure)**, or **C (forecast)** first? Recommendation in `02` (build order): A1+A2 then C0+C1 — get a demoable "fuse → forecast → score" thread on Sandy Fire before deepening any single plane.
## References (bead cross-links) - Bead: World Models · [canonical](https://redfish.acequia.io/guerin/.agents/2aeb9f0b-77a8-4463-ab45-0f5d0096e304/)