**Bead** `a617e16d-2257-40b7-8d30-9cfc5ff452e8` · [canonical URI](https://redfish.acequia.io/guerin/.agents/a617e16d-2257-40b7-8d30-9cfc5ff452e8/) · discussion: Talk: Wildfire World Model This page is the wiki facet of a [bead](https://redfish.acequia.io/guerin/.agents/); the bead is the source of truth.
## Identity - **URI:** https://redfish.acequia.io/guerin/.agents/a617e16d-2257-40b7-8d30-9cfc5ff452e8/ - **Local origin:** `sites/redfish.acequia.io/guerin/.agents/a617e16d-2257-40b7-8d30-9cfc5ff452e8/` - **GUID:** `a617e16d-2257-40b7-8d30-9cfc5ff452e8` - **Created:** 2026-06-20 - **Body:** CV (shell + filesystem + WebDAV via bearer) - **Currently animated by:** Claude (CV), invoked by Stephen (Stephen@redfish.com) - **Slug:** wildfire-world-model - **Posture:** design / architecture thread — produce a technical approach and staged plans; sketch-level, decisions gated on Stephen.
## Motivation (Why a GUID) Stephen, 2026-06-20: *"review beads this week for incident-viewer, STACs of actual fire observation from misb aircraft, news, alertwildfire and citizen imagery. write up world-models technical approach and start-bead wildfire-world-model. mount-bead senior-architect and make initial plans of how to (fuse imagery, measure wildfire behavior, and have a model for their forecasting)."* This bead applies the **world-models** thesis (from sibling bead [`2aeb9f0b`](https://redfish.acequia.io/guerin/.agents/2aeb9f0b-77a8-4463-ab45-0f5d0096e304/about.md) — LeCun's JEPA, Ha/Schmidhuber, DeepMind Dreamer/MuZero/Genie, Sutton) to **operational wildfire**. The claim: the same architecture that learns a predictive latent model of a world, corrects it from observation, and rolls it forward to plan — is exactly what fuses our multi-sensor fire imagery, measures fire behavior, and forecasts spread. It does for fire what Dreamer does for an Atari game: build an internal model good enough to imagine the next hours. It does **not** start from scratch. It composes the ~16 wildfire/STAC/camera/engine beads built in the last ~10 days into one coherent compute layer, under the **senior-architect** `b2d9f6e1` convergence lens (5-plane "loosely couple, tightly align" stack).
## Mechanism (What this bead does) - **Goes here:** the world-models technical approach for wildfire (`notes/01`); staged initial plans for the three sub-goals — fuse imagery / measure behavior / forecast (`notes/02`); the orientation that ties the ecology together (`notes/00`). - **Does NOT go here:** the production code (that lives in the app/engine beads it mounts — incident-viewer, taos-engine, fire-progression); fabricated benchmark numbers; settled decisions (all sketches are forkable, gated on Stephen). - **Posture:** a *plan and a frame*, not an implementation. It is the architecture seam between the world-models theory bead and the existing wildfire app/data beads.
## Mounted beads (composition) This bead **mounts** (reads as load-bearing context, composes — does not edit): - **senior-architect `b2d9f6e1`** — the 5-plane convergence lens (data/STAC · UI-shell · time-cursor · engine-kit · namespace-bus). Every plan here is aligned to a plane. https://redfish.acequia.io/guerin/.agents/b2d9f6e1-4c3a-4e58-8a1f-7d0c5b9e2a64/about.md - **world-models `2aeb9f0b`** — the theory (JEPA / Dreamer / Sutton). The sibling this bead operationalizes. - **Detect / forage front-end (FUSE upstream — added 2026-06-21):** `5b518c35` wildfire-forager (the forager *pattern*: detection source → normalized ignition record → fan-out → catalog) + `bd08d6d4` wildcad (first source-subscriber; `subscribe-wildcad.mjs` over WildWeb/WildWeb-E dispatch — the earliest "a fire exists here" signal). These supply the ignition trigger that kicks off Plan A. - **Data / observation beads (FUSE):** `97559992` cataloging-incident (MISB-0601 KLV → catalog), `cbf8b027` incident-viewer-taos-engine-app (Sandy/Palisades STAC, heat-perimeter KMLs), `31f69717` stac-camera-telemetry, `2986ff41` adsb-for-heli-videos, `58c0a5e0` media-forager, `b3461c66` wildfire-imagery-acquisition (AlertWest grabber), `65783732` firewatch-camera-grid (AlertWildfire/AlertCalifornia PTZ), `90f902e0` catalog (STAC substrate), `edb06426` pose-ux-ui + `74c30681` image-pose-calibrator + `58091f55` georegister-image + `09fd1bf6` set-time-space (pose/calibration for telemetry-less citizen imagery). - **Behavior / forecast beads (MEASURE + FORECAST):** `182bd1a7` fire-progression (TOA raster from perimeters, level-set/Eikonal — `progression-maker.mjs`), `b6fcda63` fire-in-taos (slope-biased fire CA on real DEM), `ab987654` wildfire-as-Phase-4-computation (Finney framing). - **Engine / render (ENGINE plane):** `c66cbd1d` taos-engine, `f4ef67b7` agentscript-webgpu (GPU ABM step loop), `2028c98b` taos-samples, `d6ad03ba` taos-recipes, `221f3fe2` taos-tooling. - **Substrate:** `4456cd24` decentralized-cache (namespace-as-bus), `eb8d150d` darpa-dice (decentralized AI framing).
## Folder Layout ``` a617e16d-2257-40b7-8d30-9cfc5ff452e8/ ├── about.md ├── uploads/ │ └── README.md └── 2026-06-20/ ├── notes/ │ ├── 00-wildfire-world-model-orientation.md │ ├── 01-world-models-technical-approach.md # the writeup │ └── 02-initial-plans-fuse-measure-forecast.md # the 3 plans (A updated 06-21) ├── skills/ ├── chats/ │ └── 2026-06-20-wildfire-world-model.md └── artifacts/ 2026-06-21/ └── notes/ └── 03-overarching-plan.md # end-to-end program plan ```
## Session Log - **2026-06-20 — bead opened** by Claude (CV) at Stephen's `start-bead wildfire-world-model`. Surveyed ~16 wildfire/STAC/camera/engine beads (Explore agent) and mounted senior-architect `b2d9f6e1`. Grounded fire-behavior terms via Wikipedia *Wildfire modeling* (Rothermel ROS, Byram fireline intensity, FARSITE Huygens, WRF-Fire level-set, EnKF assimilation). Wrote orientation, the world-models technical approach, and the three staged plans (fuse / measure / forecast), each aligned to a senior-architect convergence plane. No production code; all decisions gated on Stephen. - **2026-06-21 — mounted detect/forage front-end + overarching plan.** Mounted `5b518c35` wildfire-forager and `bd08d6d4` wildcad as Plan A's upstream (ignition trigger → forager fan-out); reframed Plan A (added stage A0 detect, A2 = forager fan-out). Re-affirmed senior-architect `b2d9f6e1` mount. Wrote `notes/03-overarching-plan.md` — the end-to-end detect→forage→fuse→measure→forecast→serve program, plane-aligned, with the namespace-bus realization of the forager pattern.
## Modus Operandi (How to interact) - **Read order:** `notes/00` (frame + ecology map) → `notes/01` (technical approach) → `notes/02` (the three plans). Then fork a stage/plane to drive deeper (sketch-ux: engage the question, don't approve/reject). - New concepts → `2026-06-20/notes/`; deliverables → `artifacts/`; verbatim → `chats/`; inbound → `uploads/`. - Cross-bead refs use absolute URIs. Do NOT edit mounted beads; offer to their docks.
## Capabilities Hosts the wildfire-world-model architecture and plans. Can be cited for: how the world-models thesis maps onto operational fire; how the existing fuse/measure/forecast beads compose; the staged build path under the senior-architect planes. Does NOT produce production code or validated forecasts.
## Lifecycle - **Energization:** Stephen's request; re-charged when a stage is driven into a build bead. - **Apoptosis:** fades once each plan stage is adopted by (or spun into) its implementing bead, or superseded by a ratified program plan. Offer-only to mounted beads; leaves no dangling infra.
## Limitations Not an implementation, not a benchmark. Fire-behavior model specifics grounded via one Wikipedia fetch (WebSearch was degraded this session — ML-fire-forecasting state-of-the-art citations are confirm-pending). Vantage-relative: reads the ecology through the fuse/measure/forecast triad Stephen named.
## Related beads - world-models `2aeb9f0b` (theory) · senior-architect `b2d9f6e1` (convergence lens) · fire-progression `182bd1a7` (measure) · fire-in-taos `b6fcda63` (forecast CA) · cataloging-incident `97559992` (MISB fuse) · catalog `90f902e0` (STAC). All absolute-URI'd in `notes/00`.
## References (bead cross-links) - Bead: World Models · [canonical](https://redfish.acequia.io/guerin/.agents/2aeb9f0b-77a8-4463-ab45-0f5d0096e304/) - Bead: Senior Architect · [canonical](https://redfish.acequia.io/guerin/.agents/b2d9f6e1-4c3a-4e58-8a1f-7d0c5b9e2a64/)
See all: Beads